Friday, August 31, 2012

Bounce for Romney from GOP National Convention--One of Smallest in History

The typical bounce a candidate can expect from a national political convention is in the neighborhood of 6-8 points.  What did Mitt Romney get from his?

A mere 1.8 points.  And that polling was taken before the speech everyone's talking about.  And no, it wasn't Romney's, but rather actor Clint Eastwood, who turned off voters of every stripe except the drunken fools.  I expect when polls are taken in the next few days, it will turn out that Romney got no bounce whatsoever from the three days of staged presentations.

And if Obama gets the average 6-8 point bounce, the election will be all but over.  Sad, sad day for Republicans.

Clint Eastwood Destroys Mitt Romney's Chances at GOP Convention

As undecided and independent voters tuned into the GOP National Convention last night to see what the Republicans were about, they were blown away.  And not in a good way.

It was as if Clint Eastwood took a Magnum 57 and shot them dead.  The former actor and now director went through 12, 13, 14 minutes of a rambling, incoherent, confusing speech that left all who heard it stunned for its crass nature and unprofessionalism.  At the end, people couldn't tell if Eastwood was for Gitmo, against it, for war, against it, and even criticized the man he was there to praise for being a Harvard law school student.  Most Republicans sat in silence and dumb awe at what was taking place before them.

One of the worst parts of the embarrassing scene was when Eastwood talked to an empty chair that was supposed to represent President Barack Obama, as if an African-American didn't deserve to have a voice.  During one part of the "skit", Eastwood said, "What do you have to say about Mitt Romney?  Oh, well he can't do that to himself," as if President Obama would ever say that.  It was crass, uncalled for, shameful, ill-advised, self-damaging to the Republicans and the most despicable thing ever seen at a national political convention.

The performance ruined any chance of not only Romney, but of Republicans doing well this fall.  "If that's what Republicans stand for, I want no part of it," said one undecided voter.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Wall Street Depressed by Paul Ryan

Young Paul Ryan made his debut on the national stage last night at the GOP Convention and Republicans won't be happy with the results.  The next morning, investors are depressed about what Ryan had to offer as the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 69 points.  A similar result occurred when Mitt Romney was announced as the party's nominee.

The main problem was that Ryan was too premature for prime time.  His speech offered not just gaffes, but deliberate lies, like when he tried to blame President Obama for a GM plant closure in his home state of Wisconsin.  Ryan is smart enough to know that the plant closed while his president, George W. Bush, was in power and long before Obama even took office.  He also blamed Obama for not accepting all of the recommendations of the debt commission, that same debt commission that Ryan himself walked away from.

In his 20-minute speech, Ryan didn't offer one shred of anything that resembled a plan; rather, he sounded very "Perot-like", someone who said we needed to change and needed to do better, without having Clue One about how to accomplish that.

I have never held political office, but if someone like me can debate every one of Ryan's points and make him look back, he's a little too unseasoned for the grill of American politics.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Obama Not Popular in Middle East or China

If you want the U.S. president to be popular in the Middle East and China, vote for Mitt Romney.  President Barack Obama is popular everywhere overseas but those areas.  

Among the allies of the U.S., Obama is hugely popular--87% of Germans, 86 of the French, 80% of the British and 66% of Japan have confidence in him according to a new poll by the Pew Research Center.  An astounding 92% of the French, 89% of Germans, 73% of the British and 74% of the Japanese want Obama re-elected.

In the Middle East, those folks don't hold Obama in as high esteem.  In those countries, 29% approve
of Obama's performance and 25% want him re-elected.  The Republicans seem to think much the
same way as the Arabs, as Obama has similar numbers in polls of Republicans.  The GOP can also proudly say that they think the same way as China, where just 38% approve of Obama and 31% of the Chinese want Obama re-elected.

New Jersey Puts Mitt Romney Over the Top

New Jersey's delegates cast the votes necessary to officially put Mitt Romney over the top and secure the Republican nomination for president.  The former leader of Bain Capital is now in the hunt.  Let the race begin!

Today's Schedule for Republican Convention

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus
Color Guard Knights of Columbus
Pledge of Allegiance by former Govs. Tim Babcock of Montana, and Tom Hogan of Florida
National Anthem sung by Philip Alongi
Invocation by Rabbi Meir Soloveichik
Opening procedural steps, appointment of convention committees
Welcoming remarks, and House and Senate candidates and RNC auxiliaries
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus
RNC Co-Chairman Sharon Day
Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, D-Fla.
William Harris, convention chief executive officer
Al Austin, chairman of Tampa Bay host committee
Republican congressional candidates
State Del. Barbara Comstock, R-Va.
Rep. Tim Griffin, R-Ark.
Republican Senate candidates
Republican National Committee auxiliaries
Consideration of convention committee reports
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus
Mike Duncan, chairman, Committee on Credentials
Zoraida Fonalledas, chairwoman, Committee on Permanent Organization
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, convention permanent chairman
Official Convention Photograph
Committee on Rules Chairman John Sununu
Committee on Resolutions Chairman Gov. Bob McDonnell, R-Va.
Committee on Resolutions Co-Chairman Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D.
Committee on Resolutions Co-Chairman Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.
Roll call for nomination of president of the United States
Roll call for nomination of vice president of the United States
— 6:40 p.m.
— 7 p.m.
Remarks by House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio
Remarks by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus
Video and remarks by Utah congressional candidate and Mayor Mia Love, R-Saratoga Spring.
Remarks by Janine Turner
Remarks by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa.
Remarks by Host, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash.
— 8 p.m.
Remarks by U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., accompanied by Jack Gilchrist
Remarks by Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio
Remarks by Gov. Mary Fallin, R-Okla.
Remarks by Gov. Bob McDonnell, R-Va., accompanied by Bev Gray
Remarks by Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis.
— 9 p.m.
Remarks by Gov. Brian Sandoval, R-Nev.
Remarks by Sher Valenzuela
Remarks by Republican Senate candidate Ted Cruz of Texas
Remarks by Artur Davis
Remarks by Gov. Nikki Haley, R-S.C.
— 10 p.m.
Remarks by Luce’ Vela Fortuño
Remarks by Ann Romney
Remarks by Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J.
Benediction by Sammy Rodriguez

Ron Paul Supporters to GOP: We Can Do Better

I couldn't agree more.

Paul loyalists say 'we can do better'

Home Prices Spike

If you were waiting to buy a house counting on prices dropping, you waited too long, my friends.

The S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index climbed 6.9% in the three months ended June 30 compared to the first three months of 2012. The sharp boost in home prices could signal a recovery in the U.S. housing market, according to an industry report issued yesterday.

"We seem to be witnessing exactly what we needed for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change," said David Blitzer, a spokesman for S&P, in a statement. "The market may have finally turned around."

Two other key indexes covered in the report confirmed the conclusion. The 20-city index was up 6% for the quarter and the 10-city index rose 5.8%.

That's very bad news for Republicans, who are set to bash President Obama for the "poor economy".  If they come out with that in light of this great economic news, they'll look pretty dumb.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Obama Leads in Florida

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Florida, site of the GOP Convention (when it gets underway) and a must-win state for Romney.  The current count is:  President Obama 50, Mitt Romney 46.

GOP National Convention Cut Short

Republicans had big plans this year, but God had other ideas.  The GOP National Convention will have to be curtailed due to Isaac, meaning less time to get their message across.  They have another disadvantage:  The Democratic National Convention is still upcoming and they will get the last word in prior to debates.  That puts even more pressure on challenger Mitt Romney in those head-to-head meetings.

Politics Simplified will have complete coverage of the Republican Convention, when the hope is that it will begin tomorrow.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Romney Chooses Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

Going for the vote in Wisconsin, Republican challenger selected Paul Ryan for his running mate.  Wisconsin has in recent years turned more Republican--how's that going for you, Wisconsin?

Conventional wisdom had Romney choosing Rubio or Jeb Bush from Florida to try to win that state.  Florida has far more electoral votes than Wisconsin.  And Rick Santorum, the party's best choice, not only did not win the nomination but won't even be on the ticket.  Word is that Romney and Santorum never did really get along well.  And with Romney's stance on the issues, it's no wonder.

We'll have further analysis of the pick in the days to come.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Obama Goes Over 50% in CNN Poll

In a just-released CNN poll of registered voters, President Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.  This is what I said several months ago would happen and that the GOP would be much, much better nominating Rick Santorum.  At least you would have a contrast in what the two candidates stood for.  With Romney's health care plan being the model for what is now the law of the land, can't differentiate much there.

Obama is now over the critical 50% mark in the poll, leading 52-45 over Romney.  Two notes:  first, that 50% threshold is huge because a majority of Americans don't usually change their mind about such things.  If it was 48-45, a few people could change their minds and the race would be tied, then the undecideds would be the difference.  Second, is just that factor, the undecideds.  Usually at this point in the race, the undecideds make up 7-10% of the population.  To be at just 3% is historic and not a good sign at all for Romney.  

Further, the presidential race is usually decided by people who shift to one candidate all at once.  It seems that is what is happening now.  That also carries over into the Senate and Congressional races.  There will likely be much negative campaigning out of the Romney camp in the next three months, but if you're seven points down, it's tough to convince that many people that they're wrong.

Another Blow to the Flat Earthers

The few remaining people who don't believe there is global warming, ancestors of people who continued to believe that the earth was flat despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, received another punch when scientists confirmed that July was the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1895.

The July heat caused drought conditions in the United States that now affects 63% of the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  The average temperature in the lower 48 states was 77.6 degrees, 3.3 degrees higher than the average for the entire 20th century.  

The hot temperatures were the searing cap on a 12-month period that also recorded the hottest temperatures on record, and also contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year.

The extreme heat and record dryness have also led to wildfires, with more than two million acres consumed in July, notably in Colorado.

United States Economy Continues to Show Improvement

Unemployment claims fell 6,000 to 361,000 last week, far short of the 375,000 that analysts expected.  The stock market has been hesitant because of those predictions, which have been proven dead wrong.  Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit fell to $42.9 billion in June, down from $48 billion the previous month and also much better than the poor prediction of $47.5 billion.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Questions About Romney's Taxes Fuels Distrust

With every day that Mitt Romney refuses to release his tax returns fuels voter distrust in him that something might be amiss.  This distrust is in direct correlation to daily tracking polls which show President Barack Obama increasing his lead.

Obama's lead now averages 3.4 points, with some services showing the margin in double digits.  Even the far-right leaning Rasmussen Reports now shows President Obama with a two point lead in the race to be president.

Romney is in a corner, and the only way he can stop the slaughter is to release his taxes, as every other candidate in United States modern history has done.

Republicans Announce Convention Lineup

There is already speculation about Mitt Romney's choice for VP and with the announcement that Rick Santorum as a key speaker for the Republican National Convention later this month.  And if Santorum isn't chosen, the question is "Why not?"  Many Republicans believe he should be the party's nominee.  

Other speakers will be Florida Governor Jeb Bush, brother of George W. Bush, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin.  There is also speculation about Jeb Bush as a possible V.P candidate.  As is obvious by the Republicans' choice of Tampa, Florida as the site for the convention, they desperately want to hold on to Florida.  In fact, if they lose that, the fat lady can begin singing.

Exact days and times for each speaker will not be released by the RNC at this time.