Thursday, August 9, 2012

Obama Goes Over 50% in CNN Poll

In a just-released CNN poll of registered voters, President Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.  This is what I said several months ago would happen and that the GOP would be much, much better nominating Rick Santorum.  At least you would have a contrast in what the two candidates stood for.  With Romney's health care plan being the model for what is now the law of the land, can't differentiate much there.

Obama is now over the critical 50% mark in the poll, leading 52-45 over Romney.  Two notes:  first, that 50% threshold is huge because a majority of Americans don't usually change their mind about such things.  If it was 48-45, a few people could change their minds and the race would be tied, then the undecideds would be the difference.  Second, is just that factor, the undecideds.  Usually at this point in the race, the undecideds make up 7-10% of the population.  To be at just 3% is historic and not a good sign at all for Romney.  

Further, the presidential race is usually decided by people who shift to one candidate all at once.  It seems that is what is happening now.  That also carries over into the Senate and Congressional races.  There will likely be much negative campaigning out of the Romney camp in the next three months, but if you're seven points down, it's tough to convince that many people that they're wrong.

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